Análise econômica da produção e risco em sistemas agroflorestais e sistemas de produção tradicionais: Tomé-Açú, Pará- 2001 a 2003.

Abstract

This study intends to evaluate rentability, to identify the determinants production inputs and to analyze the risk, economy of scale and economic efficiency of the agroforestry (SAF) and traditional agricultural (ST) systems, cultivated in eighteen different small (and medium) farms at Tomé-Açu, Pará, Brazil. The research's data was raised from 2001 to 2003, and the methodology is based in three economic analysis models: the first one estimates the economic rentability of this systems by using the statistic methods applied to the gross production value (VBP), costs and the accumulated investment in each farm until 2003; the second model uses the fator analysis in order to identify the mainly representative factors of the variable samples, including the VBP and risk estimated by regressions, using the ordinary least square (OLS) method; the third model uses the dynamic autoregressive model in order to verify the determinant variables of the VBP estimated under risk conditions — also evaluating, the economy of scale and the economic efficiency of the SAF and ST. The second and third models develop two levels of analysis: at system level and at property (or farm) level. The results of factor analysis at system level indicate that the physical production and product's competitiveness factors affect directly the VBP, but only the first one factor means source of risk to the analyzed systems, The management capacity factor does not affect both, SAF and ST's gross production value (VBP), but it brings serious risk for those systems. Another hand, results of the factor analysis at property level indicate that the rational production and the product's competitiveness factors affect directly the VBP, but only the first one generate risk to the studied systems. The dynamic regression model results showed that the cultivated area, inputs, technology and the one period lagged VBP (except labor and machinery) have positive impacts on the current VBP of the two systems analyzed, according the dynamic production function's theory. Furthermore, the dummy variable shows a minor accumulative difference of the SAF's VBP in comparison with ST's VBP, from one period (year) to another. The estimated risk function results indicate that the use of fertilizer and pesticides reduce the risk leve! of the two systems, but the current technology, if it should not be best comminuted with another production inputs, it can t expand the risk level of production. In addition to this, the dummy indicates that the SAF presents minor risk level than the ST, at system and farm levels. The results from the economy of scale analysis show that the SAF and ST are operating with decreasing returns, and results from the economic efficiency indicate that the optimal condition depends on increasing in cultivated area, major inputs use and a best combination of the technology, permanent labor and machinery with another production inputs. Under these conclusions, the study suggests two measures: 1) the first one suggests the increase in scale of production by expanding the inputs located in rational production stage (1), as well as the reduction use and best combination of the technology, labor and machinery — these last two resources operating currently in the non-rational production stage (Ill); these measures probably will improve the alocative efficiency and the risk-efficiency hypothesis; and, 2) the second, suggests the search for major market share, in substitution of the optima! profit, which would be a strategic goal (long term), when the production scale gets to operate with the minimum average cost. It is possible, because the current results show that the SAF, besides presenting minor risk level than the ST, presents too major rentability than the traditional production systems. This relative economic sustainability of the SAF associated to the soil fertility and productivity, is probably generated by its capacity of biomass production, from which emerges its contribution in carbon capturing, important role of the SAF in maintaining of the environmental control as a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), according Kyoto Protocol