Monitoramento espaço-temporal e impactos de mudanças climáticas na ocorrência de pragas quarentenárias em frutíferas na América Tropical.

Abstract

Quarantine pests, such as citrus black spot (Phyllosticta citricarpa Van der Aa), the carambola fruit fly (Bactrocera carambolae Drew & Hancock), and cacao frosty pod rot [Moniliophthora roreri (Cif.) H.C. Evans], pose serious threats to fruit production in the Amazon due to phytosanitary restrictions imposed on the commercialization of fruits from affected areas. This thesis, composed of four chapters, focused on: 1. Analyzing the spatial-temporal dynamics of these pests under field conditions; 2. Examining their interactions with hosts under current climatic conditions; 3. Evaluating the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures used by official control programs for eradication; 4. Modeling the potential bioclimatic suitability of M. roreri under present climate conditions and climate change scenarios; 5. Identifying risk invasion routes of these threats in Pará as a phytosanitary defense management strategy for the state. Phytosanitary surveys were conducted in commercial and domestic plantations of host plants, recording both presence and absence of the pests. Quantitative tools, geographic information systems, and machine learning techniques were applied to assess phytosanitary risks and understand pathogen-host interactions. The analyses revealed that citrus black spot had a total incidence of 6.5% in plants, displaying an aggregated pattern with spatial dependence explained by a Gaussian model, and a disease spread range of 25.5 to 103 meters in domestic and commercial orchards. The total prevalence of citrus black spot in properties was 5.5%, showing a random spatial pattern in older plantations with a low number of hosts and a spread range of 20.3 km. Seasonality influenced the transition from hard spot to virulent spot symptoms, with conidia-driven infections showing higher prevalence and incidence during the drier period. The carambola fruit fly had a higher incidence in Jackson traps installed in carambola and mango trees, influenced by relative humidity, global radiation, collected fruits, rainfall, and an increased amount of paraferomone-based methyl eugenol sexual attractant solution. The drier period favored the population abundance of B. carambolae, which exhibited low spatial dependence and a movement radius of 3.3 km. Continuous monitoring through trapping, fruit collection and destruction, and the use of food and sexual attractants eradicated the insect, maintaining a maximum fly/trap/day index of 0.54, which kept the pest under official control at low prevalence. The potential distribution model for M. roreri suggests high bioclimatic suitability across all mesoregions of Pará, with a high invasion risk in Juruti, Terra Santa, Oriximiná, and Jacareacanga. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in favorability for M. roreri is expected in Pará’s cacao-producing regions, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 high-warming pathway. The Trans-Amazonian region is projected to experience the greatest loss in bioclimatic suitability, whereas greater resilience is suggested for Marajó, Baixo Amazonas, and Southeastern Pará. Spatial-temporal mapping of quarantine pests in favorable environments, as well as the identification of invasion-risk areas and active transit routes of contaminated material, are essential for developing effective control and management strategies. These measures aim to ensure the health of production areas, maintain competitiveness, and minimize vulnerabilities. These findings are of significant public interest, as they contribute to understanding pest epidemiology under field conditions and support decision-making in phytosanitary management, promoting the sustainable development of tropical fruit farming.